NYJJets
0-5
0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
15 mph
24
MIADolphins
2-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Dolphins
7
14
3
0
24
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
302
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
-0.11
Passing Yards
148
192
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.15
Rushing Yards
115
110
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
12%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.27
-6.49
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-38
-8
Sack EPA
-6.11
-2.92
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
80
25
Penalty EPA
-11.23
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
Jets+9.0
Expected Value
+2.2%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,322
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.8
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
+143.6
Final Difference
192.6
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
25
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U