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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
0-5
0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
15 mph
24
MIADolphins
2-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Dolphins
7
14
3
0
24

Spread

MIA logo
-9

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
263
302
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
-0.11
Passing Yards
148
192
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.15
Rushing Yards
115
110
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
12%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.27
-6.49
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-38
-8
Sack EPA
-6.11
-2.92
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
80
25
Penalty EPA
-11.23
-4.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.2%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,322
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.8
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
+143.6
Final Difference
192.6
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Value
Ptile
11/04
-2.6
31
09/09
-0.7
48
09/15
2.4
69
09/22
-7.6
9
09/29
3.6
76
10/06
-4.5
23
10/13
-4.6
22
10/17
-9.3
6
10/27
-3.7
27
10/11
-4.4
17
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
12/01
4.3
80
12/08
-1.4
44
12/15
0.6
56
12/22
5.3
84
12/29
8.1
93
09/13
-4.9
16
09/20
5.2
78
09/24
6.2
84
10/04
1.7
56
10/11
8.6
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
25
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
16
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-16
L
L
U
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/12
-21
L
L
O
12/22
6
W
W
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
-29
L
L
U
10/01
-9
L
L
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
12/15
-16
L
L
O
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
09/13
-10
L
L
U
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/24
18
W
W
U
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/11
26
W
W
O