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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ panthers week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
-
14
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
0
19
CARPanthers
-
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
81°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
8
6
14
Panthers
0
16
0
3
19

Spread

CAR logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
254
381
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
4.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.10
Passing Yards
207
270
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.08
Rushing Yards
47
111
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.84
-3.92
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-51
-9
Sack EPA
-9.31
-2.95
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
-5.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,375
Home Field
+60.6
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.8
Home QB Adjustment
-17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
97.5
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
No recent game data available
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.9
Value
Ptile
09/27
-7.5
7
10/01
-0.3
44
10/25
-15.0
0
11/01
-2.4
27
11/29
-9.0
4
12/06
-1.4
34
12/13
-8.1
6
12/20
2.3
62
12/27
-3.1
23
01/03
-3.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Panthers Defense
Jets logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18

EPA

EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
29
12
EPA / Rush
13
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
5
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Panthers Offense vs Jets Defense
Panthers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29

EPA

EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
17
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
4
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
25
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-8
L
W
U
11/01
-26
L
L
U
11/09
-3
L
W
O
11/22
-6
L
W
O
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
-37
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U