NYJJets
2-13
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
5 mph
28
NEPatriots
6-9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
7
0
14
Patriots
7
0
7
14
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
404
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.6
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.18
Passing Yards
239
238
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.41
Rushing Yards
111
166
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.90
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-23
Sack EPA
-4.42
-5.15
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
30
47
Penalty EPA
-3.02
-7.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
Patriots-3.0
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
111.6
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
32
29
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
24
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U