NYJJets
5-5
3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
26 mph
19
BALRavens
4-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
33°F
26 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
0
0
3
Ravens
3
6
10
0
19
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
220
312
Total Plays
55
62
Yards / Play
4.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.08
Passing Yards
118
245
Comp/Att
10/24(42%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.00
Rushing Yards
102
67
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
8%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.28
-5.26
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-22
-28
Sack EPA
-4.54
-3.03
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
56
41
Penalty EPA
-7.07
-3.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
Ravens-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.4
Home QB Adjustment
-22.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
+12.7
Final Difference
139.7
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
10
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
5
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Ravens Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U