DETLions
3-1
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
84°F
7 mph
24
CINBengals
2-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
84°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
14
7
35
Bengals
0
3
0
21
24
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
322
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
6.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.03
Passing Yards
247
237
Comp/Att
20/24(83%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.22
Rushing Yards
118
85
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.30
-11.80
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-9.56
-3.42
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
56
30
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
Bengals+10.0
Expected Value
+11.8%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-83.6
Home QB Adjustment
-75.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-207.6
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-75.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
10
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U