DETLions
3-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0CINBengals
2-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals+10.5
Expected Value
+15.4%
Cover Probability
60.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-175
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-83.6
Home QB Adjustment
-75.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
-213.0
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-75.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
1
24
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
29
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U