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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bengals week 5, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-1
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
84°F
7 mph
24
CINBengals
2-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
84°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
14
7
35
Bengals
0
3
0
21
24

Spread

DET logo
-10

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
365
322
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
6.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.03
Passing Yards
247
237
Comp/Att
20/24(83%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.22
Rushing Yards
118
85
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.30
-11.80
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-9.56
-3.42
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
56
30
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.8%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-83.6
Home QB Adjustment
-75.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-207.6
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
12/05
6.0
85
12/15
13.6
99
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.9
37
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
J. Browning headshot

J. Browning

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-75.9
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.9
36
12/04
9.8
97
12/10
6.4
88
12/16
0.1
49
12/23
-2.8
30
12/31
-1.3
40
01/07
3.8
74
09/21
-6.6
10
09/29
-6.0
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Lions logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
25
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Bengals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16

EPA

EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
10
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
4
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
3
W
P
O
12/15
-6
L
L
O
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
18
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
L
U
09/07
1
W
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
O
09/21
-38
L
L
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U