DETLions
6-2
41
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
038
LACChargers
4-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
10
14
7
10
41
Chargers
3
14
7
14
38
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
533
421
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
8.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.29
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.36
Rushing Yards
200
98
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.38
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.94
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
44
36
Penalty EPA
-6.88
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+17.5
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
-18.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
12
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Chargers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
23
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
27
RZ Efficiency
13
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U