DETLions
1-2
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
026
DALCowboys
1-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
0
14
24
Cowboys
3
10
7
6
26
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
414
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
7.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.21
Passing Yards
286
231
Comp/Att
24/30(80%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.32
Rushing Yards
96
183
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
55%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-24
Sack EPA
-4.16
-2.22
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-5.25
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
7
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
22
19
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
16
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
7
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-9
O/U