DETLions
1-3
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
10 mph
16
JAXJaguars
1-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
7
10
34
Jaguars
3
0
7
6
16
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
275
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
231
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.15
Rushing Yards
180
44
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
80%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.41
-5.82
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.99
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.07
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+3.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
29
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
14
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U