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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ jaguars week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
1-3
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
10 mph
16
JAXJaguars
1-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
7
10
34
Jaguars
3
0
7
6
16

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
403
275
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
231
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.15
Rushing Yards
180
44
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
80%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.41
-5.82
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.99
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.07
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+3.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
-1.4
43
09/29
3.0
72
10/14
-2.8
33
10/20
7.5
92
10/27
2.7
70
11/03
3.4
74
09/13
1.0
51
09/20
-2.2
28
09/27
-0.5
42
10/04
-1.4
34
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/03
-5.2
18
12/08
-0.3
51
12/15
-1.1
46
12/22
-5.8
16
12/29
1.4
65
09/13
2.1
60
09/20
3.0
67
09/24
-3.3
22
10/04
2.2
61
10/11
0.5
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Lions logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30

EPA

EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
29
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Jaguars logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
14
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/08
-13
L
L
U
12/15
-21
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
-3
L
W
U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-17
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
O
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/24
-18
L
L
U
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
-16
L
L
U