DETLions
5-8
25
TBD
Nissan Stadium
46°F
5 mph
46
TENTitans
9-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
46°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
6
3
7
23
Titans
14
10
0
22
46
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
430
465
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
6.6
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.51
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.88
Rushing Yards
123
197
Rush Attempts
27
39
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
28
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
82%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.25
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
33
22
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-2.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Titans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U