DETLions
0-4
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
019
MINVikings
1-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
11
17
Vikings
3
10
0
6
19
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
384
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
4.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.13
Passing Yards
182
264
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.17
Rushing Yards
108
120
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.30
-9.63
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-23
-11
Sack EPA
-10.87
-2.77
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
30
74
Penalty EPA
-3.09
-8.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model76.7%
Spread Pick
Lions+10.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+15.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
207.2
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
6-3-1
O/U