DETLions
3-4
20
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
034
MINVikings
2-5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
0
10
20
Vikings
13
7
7
7
34
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
487
Total Plays
74
55
Yards / Play
5.7
8.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.03
Passing Yards
292
212
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.32
Rushing Yards
129
275
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
4.8
8.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
22
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-16.50
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-8
Sack EPA
-3.11
-1.68
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
37
69
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-13.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
10
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U