GBPackers
4-4
23
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
6 mph
16
CHIBears
3-5
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
3
10
23
Bears
3
3
0
10
16
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
323
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
5.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
182
268
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.07
Rushing Yards
160
55
Rush Attempts
37
17
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.62
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-30
-29
Sack EPA
-6.20
-7.48
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
35
78
Penalty EPA
-2.27
-3.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+152.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-150.3
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-150.3
Value
Ptile
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U