GBPackers
13-0
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph
19
KCChiefs
5-8
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
7
7
14
Chiefs
6
0
3
10
19
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
438
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
213
--
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.46
Rushing Yards
102
139
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-4.55
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
55
Penalty EPA
-2.90
-7.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model77.9%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+11.0
Expected Value
+18.6%
Cover Probability
60.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,722
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.5
Home QB Adjustment
+42.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
-218.8
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+42.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Chiefs Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
31
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U