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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ chiefs week 15, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
13-0
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph
19
KCChiefs
5-8
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
7
7
14
Chiefs
6
0
3
10
19

Spread

KC logo
+11

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
315
438
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
213
--
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.46
Rushing Yards
102
139
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-4.55
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
55
Penalty EPA
-2.90
-7.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model77.9%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.6%
Cover Probability
60.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,722
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.5
Home QB Adjustment
+42.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
-218.8
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
10/02
15.7
100
10/09
4.3
78
10/16
5.2
82
10/23
6.9
90
11/06
9.3
96
11/14
6.5
88
11/20
5.4
83
11/24
5.3
82
12/04
8.3
95
12/11
0.1
52
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+42.1
Value
Ptile
11/14
9.6
97
11/22
-3.1
29
11/28
5.2
84
12/05
-10.1
4
12/12
-10.1
4
09/12
-3.1
31
09/18
0.8
58
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
1.8
64
10/09
-7.0
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Packers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26

EPA

EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
16
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Chiefs Offense vs Packers Defense
Chiefs logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13

EPA

EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
31
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
32
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
26
W
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
U
10/16
21
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
L
O
11/06
7
W
W
O
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/20
9
W
L
O
11/24
12
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
5
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
O
10/23
28
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
U
11/06
-28
L
L
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/21
-31
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
-27
L
L
O