GBPackers
7-2
31
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
034
INDColts
6-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
7
21
0
3
0
31
Colts
7
7
11
6
3
34
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
422
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
6.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.06
Passing Yards
301
280
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.09
Rushing Yards
66
142
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-20.65
-9.70
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-2.05
-1.44
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
45
116
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-10.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
1.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
3
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
31
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
18
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Colts Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U