GBPackers
2-3
42
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
5-0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
7
7
14
42
Texans
0
10
7
1
18
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
321
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
6.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.04
Passing Yards
328
231
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.08
Rushing Yards
99
90
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.75
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-24
Sack EPA
-2.69
-5.31
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
51
69
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-12.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
9
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
13
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U