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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ bears week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-2
3
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
15 mph
17
CHIBears
2-4
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
0
0
3
Bears
1
4
0
0
5

Spread

CHI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
293
153
Total Plays
69
37
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.42
Passing Yards
185
85
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
4/7(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
12.1
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.43
Rushing Yards
108
68
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
20
5
Passing 1st downs
12
2
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-24.98
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-26
-22
Sack EPA
-6.63
-7.22
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
40
Penalty EPA
-4.68
-3.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Value
Ptile
12/11
-6.4
10
12/19
0.6
54
12/24
-8.0
5
01/01
-8.0
5
09/10
-1.6
41
09/17
-4.3
23
09/24
-9.6
4
10/01
8.9
95
10/08
6.6
90
10/12
-1.9
39
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
-4.1
24
10/15
-4.0
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Panthers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10

EPA

EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
15
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bears logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3

EPA

EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
17
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
7
RZ Efficiency
5
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
12
W
W
U
12/19
11
W
W
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-1
L
W
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
6
W
L
U
09/24
-21
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/12
-5
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
O
12/24
-20
L
L
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/10
-6
L
W
U
09/17
-22
L
L
U
09/24
6
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
O