CARPanthers
4-2
3
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
15 mph
17
CHIBears
2-4
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
0
0
3
Bears
1
4
0
0
5
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
153
Total Plays
69
37
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.42
Passing Yards
185
85
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
4/7(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
12.1
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.43
Rushing Yards
108
68
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
5
Passing 1st downs
12
2
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-24.98
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-26
-22
Sack EPA
-6.63
-7.22
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
40
Penalty EPA
-4.68
-3.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+46.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
7
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U