CARPanthers
0-1
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
17 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
0-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
7
10
17
Buccaneers
14
7
0
10
31
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
339
Total Plays
71
57
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.09
Passing Yards
340
--
Comp/Att
33/42(79%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.01
Rushing Yards
87
122
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
55%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-17.89
-12.73
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-9.22
--
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
77
37
Penalty EPA
-11.14
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
Panthers+8.5
Expected Value
+14.0%
Cover Probability
59.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
+36.2
Final Difference
173.6
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
8-2
O/U