CARPanthers
6-9
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
6 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
8-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
3
6
16
Buccaneers
3
0
1
7
11
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
300
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.26
Passing Yards
207
188
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.31
Rushing Yards
128
112
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.22
-9.26
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-5.69
-8.32
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model56.0%
Spread Pick
Panthers+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.1
Market Regression
-5.4
Final Difference
41.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
11
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U