CARPanthers
0-2
21
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
016
LACChargers
1-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
12
0
3
21
Chargers
0
7
3
6
16
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
436
Total Plays
51
75
Yards / Play
5.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.16
Passing Yards
221
319
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
35/50(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.04
Rushing Yards
81
117
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
17%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-18.93
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-4.34
-9.11
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
30
60
Penalty EPA
-2.75
-8.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
23
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Chargers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
18
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
25
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
31
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
16
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
8
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U