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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ eagles week 7, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-2
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
49°F
19 mph
17
PHIEagles
3-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
49°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
0
21
21
Eagles
0
10
7
0
17

Spread

CAR logo
+5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
373
342
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
6.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
252
284
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
30/37(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.18
Rushing Yards
121
58
Rush Attempts
17
24
Yards / Rush
7.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.41
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
45%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.76
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-19
-26
Sack EPA
-3.52
-7.52
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
78
--
Penalty EPA
-7.65
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.6
Home QB Adjustment
+52.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
7.6
92
12/24
-1.7
40
12/31
-8.6
6
01/07
4.3
82
09/09
0.3
49
09/16
8.4
93
09/23
5.4
82
10/07
-0.9
41
10/14
5.0
79
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+52.0
Value
Ptile
10/29
-3.8
26
11/05
4.7
83
11/19
-0.0
52
11/26
5.9
87
12/03
2.8
73
12/10
5.6
86
09/23
-3.5
25
09/30
3.5
72
10/07
4.2
75
10/11
7.3
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Panthers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
4
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
25
25
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Eagles Offense vs Panthers Defense
Eagles logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12

EPA

EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
11
27
EPA / Rush
22
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
17
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
7
W
W
O
12/17
7
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
12/31
-12
L
L
U
01/07
-5
L
W
O
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/16
-7
L
L
O
09/23
10
W
W
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
10/14
-6
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
01/13
5
W
W
U
01/21
31
W
W
O
02/04
8
W
W
O
09/06
6
W
W
U
09/16
-6
L
L
O
09/23
4
W
L
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
U
10/11
21
W
W
O