CARPanthers
2-2
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
016
ATLFalcons
0-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
17
0
3
23
Falcons
7
0
3
6
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
373
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
6.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
207
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.10
Rushing Yards
124
166
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.32
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-4.06
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-3.06
-2.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
27
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U