CARPanthers
2-5
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
037
ATLFalcons
3-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Panthers
3
7
3
21
0
34
Falcons
0
8
7
13
3
31
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
406
Total Plays
74
67
Yards / Play
6.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.00
Passing Yards
309
239
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.22
Rushing Yards
171
167
Rush Attempts
37
37
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.24
-7.26
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-1.33
-3.40
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
74
64
Penalty EPA
-0.20
-5.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+46.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
-50.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
121.7
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Walker
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-50.8
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
9
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
22
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U