nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ packers week 10, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-3
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
6 mph
24
GBPackers
7-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
3
0
6
16
Packers
7
7
10
0
24

Spread

GB logo
-5

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
401
388
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.15
Passing Yards
281
225
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.14
Rushing Yards
120
163
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.07
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-5.83
-2.99
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-9.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.9%
Cover Probability
54.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+59.6
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+109.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
-94.8
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
147.9
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

K. Allen headshot

K. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-94.8
Value
Ptile
12/30
5.6
83
09/22
4.7
82
09/29
-2.6
34
10/06
-3.8
26
10/13
-0.8
47
10/27
-15.5
0
11/03
-4.1
25
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
12/30
-7.1
10
09/05
-3.7
26
09/15
1.3
63
09/22
0.9
59
09/26
7.8
92
10/06
-2.4
35
10/14
1.4
64
10/20
15.6
99
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-2.7
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Panthers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
18
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
20
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Packers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
9
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
2
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
O
09/08
-3
L
L
O
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/22
18
W
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-31
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/15
5
W
W
U
09/22
11
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/06
10
W
W
O
10/14
1
W
L
U
10/20
18
W
W
O
10/27
7
W
W
O
11/03
-15
L
L
U