CARPanthers
5-3
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
6 mph
24
GBPackers
7-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
3
0
6
16
Packers
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
388
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.15
Passing Yards
281
225
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.14
Rushing Yards
120
163
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.07
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-5.83
-2.99
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-9.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+58.9
Base HFA
+50.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.9
Net QB Adjustment
+109.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
-94.8
Market Regression
+4.5
Final Difference
145.9
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-94.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
18
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
9
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U