CARPanthers
1-2
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
76°F
7 mph
42
NEPatriots
1-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
76°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
0
0
7
13
Patriots
1
21
7
7
36
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
307
Total Plays
65
48
Yards / Play
5.0
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.34
Passing Yards
197
203
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
11.3
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+1.02
Rushing Yards
129
104
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.38
-0.51
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
29
54
Penalty EPA
-4.23
-4.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
121.7
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Patriots Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
28
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
8
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U