CARPanthers
4-8
30
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
4 mph
24
SEASeahawks
7-5
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
10
0
10
30
Seahawks
0
14
3
7
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
287
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.01
Passing Yards
105
241
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.01
Rushing Yards
223
46
Rush Attempts
46
14
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.78
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-23
Sack EPA
-3.06
-4.38
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-4.57
-3.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+37.4
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.3
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.2
Away QB Adjustment
+28.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U