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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ seahawks week 14, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-8
30
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
4 mph
24
SEASeahawks
7-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
10
10
0
10
30
Seahawks
0
14
3
7
24

Spread

CAR logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
328
287
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.01
Passing Yards
105
241
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.01
Rushing Yards
223
46
Rush Attempts
46
14
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.78
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-23
Sack EPA
-3.06
-4.38
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-4.57
-3.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+37.4
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.3
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.2
Away QB Adjustment
+28.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Value
Ptile
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67
10/10
-10.3
4
10/17
-6.1
14
10/24
-10.6
3
10/31
-2.4
35
11/07
-9.5
5
01/02
-10.7
3
01/09
0.5
56
11/27
2.3
70
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
09/25
2.3
70
10/02
11.2
98
10/09
4.1
81
10/16
-3.9
24
10/23
-0.1
51
10/30
1.8
66
11/06
3.6
79
11/13
4.2
81
11/27
1.3
61
12/04
4.2
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30

EPA

EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18

EPA

EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
27
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/09
-22
L
L
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
-3
L
W
O
11/06
-21
L
L
O
11/10
10
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
W
U
11/27
13
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-4
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
10
W
W
U
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
14
W
W
U
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/13
-5
L
L
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/04
4
W
L
O