CARPanthers
1-2
16
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
010
HOUTexans
2-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
0
6
16
Texans
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
264
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.28
Passing Yards
203
128
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.69
Rushing Yards
94
136
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-17.69
-11.21
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-29
-32
Sack EPA
-17.69
-10.99
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
81
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-7.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+46.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+122.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-114.7
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
141.1
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-114.7
Value
Ptile
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
15
32
Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
31
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U