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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ bengals week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
9-2
26
TBD
Paycor Stadium
54°F
7 mph
20
CINBengals
3-7
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
54°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
11
3
6
20
Bengals
3
4
0
7
14

Spread

CIN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
392
307
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
5.9
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.07
Passing Yards
285
187
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.36
Rushing Yards
107
120
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.13
-8.66
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-2.53
-2.82
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
52
65
Penalty EPA
-7.94
-6.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-143
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+43.3
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.6
Home QB Adjustment
-49.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
4.6
81
09/21
1.9
64
09/28
4.9
83
10/05
-0.9
43
10/12
5.6
87
10/19
5.8
88
10/26
2.9
72
11/02
-3.9
24
11/09
-1.1
41
11/13
3.3
74
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-49.5
Value
Ptile
01/05
-3.6
24
09/07
-1.1
41
09/14
-3.9
24
09/21
-6.8
8
09/28
-11.6
1
10/12
2.8
71
10/16
6.0
89
10/26
4.9
83
11/02
6.0
89
11/16
-2.5
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Patriots logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
23
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bengals logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
10
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
2
RZ Efficiency
4
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
6
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
29
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
6
W
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
O
10/26
19
W
W
O
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
5
W
W
O
11/13
13
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
1
W
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
O
09/21
-38
L
L
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/05
-13
L
L
O
10/12
-9
L
W
O
10/16
2
W
W
O
10/26
-1
L
L
O
11/02
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-22
L
L
U