NEPatriots
-
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
021
ARICardinals
-
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
0
7
6
23
Cardinals
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
344
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
5.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.02
Passing Yards
257
252
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.22
Rushing Yards
106
92
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
63%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.46
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-19
Sack EPA
-4.57
-4.17
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
69
58
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-2.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots+9.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+100.6
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
+36.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-34.6
Market Regression
+54.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.6
No recent game data available
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
2
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
14
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Cardinals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
27
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U