NEPatriots
3-10
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
030
ARICardinals
6-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
14
17
Cardinals
10
3
3
14
30
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
395
Total Plays
49
64
Yards / Play
6.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.23
Passing Yards
195
--
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.33
Rushing Yards
116
163
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
0%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
--
10
3rd Down Attempts
6
15
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.28
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-3.17
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,360
Home Field
+36.7
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.8
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
31
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
30
8
Cardinals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
5
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U