NEPatriots
12-5
37
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
19°F
14 mph
31
KCChiefs
13-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
19°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
7
7
3
14
6
37
Chiefs
0
0
7
24
0
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
524
290
Total Plays
94
47
Yards / Play
5.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
249
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.24
Rushing Yards
176
41
Rush Attempts
48
12
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
36
18
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
15
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
68%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
13
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.71
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-46
Sack EPA
--
-6.71
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
61
28
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-3.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,676
Home Field
+88.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+20.7
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
8
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
6
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U