NEPatriots
12-3
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
7 mph
20
MIADolphins
5-10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
0
10
Dolphins
3
7
0
10
20
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
438
Total Plays
54
73
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.03
Passing Yards
126
342
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.42
Rushing Yards
70
96
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
3
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-2.59
-1.29
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
41
93
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-8.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-242
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,652
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
11
24
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U