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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-5
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
2 mph
27
NYJJets
0-8
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
13
30
Jets
3
17
7
0
27

Spread

NYJ logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
433
322
Total Plays
76
44
Yards / Play
5.7
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.39
Passing Yards
--
257
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.57
Rushing Yards
159
65
Rush Attempts
41
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
30
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
57%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.32
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-0.96
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
81
--
Penalty EPA
-6.29
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-262
Home nfelo
1,278
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-416.5
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
12/09
-1.1
39
12/17
-9.2
5
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22
09/13
4.3
75
09/20
10.2
96
09/27
-5.0
15
10/18
-3.1
24
10/25
-10.1
3
11/01
1.4
53
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
-0.7
48
09/15
2.4
69
09/22
-7.6
9
09/29
3.6
76
10/06
-4.5
23
10/13
-4.6
22
10/17
-9.3
6
10/27
-3.7
27
10/11
-4.4
17
10/18
-10.4
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
4
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
24
14
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26

EPA

EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
28
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
32
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
16
W
W
O
10/05
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
-27
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
6
W
W
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
-29
L
L
U
10/01
-9
L
L
O
10/11
-20
L
L
U
10/18
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-8
L
W
U
11/01
-26
L
L
U