NEPatriots
2-5
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
2 mph
27
NYJJets
0-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
13
30
Jets
3
17
7
0
27
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
322
Total Plays
76
44
Yards / Play
5.7
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.39
Passing Yards
--
257
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.57
Rushing Yards
159
65
Rush Attempts
41
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
57%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.32
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-0.96
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
81
--
Penalty EPA
-6.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-264
Home nfelo
1,278
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-416.5
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
24
14
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
32
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U