NEPatriots
7-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
8 mph
13
NYJJets
3-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
10
7
27
Jets
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
498
338
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
7.4
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
264
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.08
Rushing Yards
215
74
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.70
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
105
47
Penalty EPA
-10.93
-5.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market84.5%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+12.5
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-203
Home nfelo
1,385
Away nfelo
1,634
Home Field
+3.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.8
Home QB Adjustment
+37.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
-41.5
Final Difference
-243.6
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+37.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U