OAKRaiders
0-1
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
92°F
4 mph
20
DENBroncos
1-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
92°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
9
7
0
19
Broncos
0
0
10
10
20
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
385
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.06
Passing Yards
281
217
Comp/Att
29/32(91%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.02
Rushing Yards
92
168
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.25
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-5
Sack EPA
-2.11
-1.61
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-3.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
+25.4
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
2-6-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U