OAKRaiders
7-8
15
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
31°F
6 mph
16
DENBroncos
6-9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
31°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
0
12
15
Broncos
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
477
238
Total Plays
71
57
Yards / Play
6.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.10
Passing Yards
380
168
Comp/Att
29/47(62%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.17
Rushing Yards
97
70
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.71
-4.56
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-2.65
-2.52
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
107
61
Penalty EPA
-11.23
-7.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
+50.6
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
21
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
32
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U