LARRams
7-6
12
TBD
Levi's Stadium
53°F
4 mph
6
SF49ers
6-7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
53°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
9
12
49ers
3
0
3
0
6
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
191
Total Plays
65
53
Yards / Play
4.6
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
128
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
14/31(45%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.34
Rushing Yards
142
63
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
11
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.86
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.32
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.63
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+35.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
12
14
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
26
RZ Efficiency
25
31
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
23
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U