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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
9-7
21
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
11 mph
20
SF49ers
12-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
0
6
8
21
49ers
7
13
0
0
20

Spread

LAR logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
260
300
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
151
175
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.21
Rushing Yards
109
125
Rush Attempts
36
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-1.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-5.32
-4.40
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
8
78
Penalty EPA
-2.63
-6.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model73.5%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,740
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
-53.6
Away QB Adjustment
-35.0
Market Regression
+31.2
Final Difference
177.3
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-35.0
Value
Ptile
12/25
0.9
60
01/02
-3.4
28
01/09
-9.8
4
09/11
3.3
77
09/18
1.4
62
09/25
-9.6
3
10/02
-4.6
20
10/09
4.3
82
10/13
-7.7
7
01/01
-8.4
5
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-53.6
Value
Ptile
10/31
-2.4
35
11/07
-9.5
5
01/02
-10.7
3
01/09
0.5
56
11/27
2.3
70
12/11
-2.0
37
12/18
-2.8
29
12/24
3.0
76
01/01
4.8
84
01/08
-10.1
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
7
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5

EPA

EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
8
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
8
11
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13

EPA

EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
5
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
1
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-23
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
23
W
W
O
12/03
17
W
W
O
12/10
-6
L
W
O
12/17
8
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/31
1
W
L
O
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-5
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/12
31
W
W
U
11/19
13
W
L
U
11/23
18
W
W
O
12/03
23
W
W
O
12/10
12
W
L
U
12/17
16
W
W
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
12/31
17
W
W
U