LARRams
9-7
21
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
11 mph
20
SF49ers
12-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
0
6
8
21
49ers
7
13
0
0
20
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
300
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
151
175
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.21
Rushing Yards
109
125
Rush Attempts
36
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-1.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-5.32
-4.40
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
8
78
Penalty EPA
-2.63
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model73.3%
Spread Pick
49ers-5.5
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,738
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
-53.5
Away QB Adjustment
-34.7
Market Regression
+31.2
Final Difference
175.5
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-34.7
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-53.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
7
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
8
11
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U