LARRams
8-3
32
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
016
ARICardinals
5-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
3
7
6
26
Cardinals
0
13
0
3
16
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
305
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
5.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.38
Passing Yards
213
187
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.49
Rushing Yards
90
118
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.07
-13.84
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-7
-34
Sack EPA
-1.48
-8.65
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
36
25
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-3.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-185
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-67.3
Home QB Adjustment
-34.3
Away QB Adjustment
+33.0
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+33.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-34.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
7
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
30
23
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U