LARRams
8-4
30
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
ARICardinals
10-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
13
14
3
30
Cardinals
3
10
0
10
23
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
447
Total Plays
54
75
Yards / Play
6.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.03
Passing Yards
267
344
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
32/49(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.03
Rushing Yards
89
103
Rush Attempts
21
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.18
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-39
Sack EPA
-4.74
-3.30
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
54
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-6.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
Rams+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+27.2
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
34.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
7
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
9
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
31
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U