LARRams
3-1
30
TBD
FedExField
69°F
2 mph
10
WASCommanders
1-3
TBD
FedExField
69°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
14
3
7
30
Commanders
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
108
Total Plays
66
52
Yards / Play
6.5
2.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.36
Passing Yards
300
70
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
2.3
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.78
Rushing Yards
129
38
Rush Attempts
35
14
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
10
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.03
--
Sacks
1
8
Sack Yards
-9
-41
Sack EPA
-1.46
-11.50
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
60
40
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-208
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-23.2
Home QB Adjustment
-12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
+56.7
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
24
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
18
2
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
11
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
15
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U