LARRams
5-7
24
TBD
FedExField
45°F
8 mph
0
WASCommanders
3-9
TBD
FedExField
45°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
12
0
18
Commanders
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
206
Total Plays
57
55
Yards / Play
5.8
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.50
Passing Yards
200
179
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.35
Rushing Yards
131
27
Rush Attempts
30
12
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.37
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-15
-53
Sack EPA
-4.84
-11.16
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
98
51
Penalty EPA
-8.65
-5.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Commanders+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
-22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-10.1
Final Difference
-28.6
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
28
32
EPA / Rush
29
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U