LARRams
4-1
38
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
13 mph
11
NYGGiants
1-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
28
3
7
38
Giants
3
0
0
8
11
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
263
Total Plays
66
74
Yards / Play
5.5
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.29
Passing Yards
234
203
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
29/52(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.28
Rushing Yards
131
60
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
18%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.16
-16.59
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-41
Sack EPA
-5.39
-9.99
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
27
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-4.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-157
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.3
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
+6.1
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Giants Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
26
14
RZ Efficiency
32
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U