LARRams
-
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
026
DETLions
-
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
3
0
7
10
0
20
Lions
0
10
7
3
6
26
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
363
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
304
200
Comp/Att
34/49(69%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.17
Rushing Yards
83
163
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-4.53
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-17
Sack EPA
-1.69
-2.68
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
56
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-7.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
Rams+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+21.5
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-24.9
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
102.0
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6
EPA
EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
15
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U