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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ lions week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
-
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
26
DETLions
-
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
3
0
7
10
0
20
Lions
0
10
7
3
6
26

Spread

DET logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
387
363
Total Plays
74
61
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
304
200
Comp/Att
34/49(69%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.17
Rushing Yards
83
163
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-4.53
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-17
Sack EPA
-1.69
-2.68
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
56
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-7.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-24.9
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.4
Market Regression
+13.1
Final Difference
101.9
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
10/22
-3.0
29
10/29
-1.9
37
11/19
-3.9
25
11/26
5.8
85
12/03
7.1
91
12/10
4.4
78
12/17
1.8
62
12/21
6.4
88
12/31
-3.0
29
01/14
4.8
80
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
11/23
4.1
76
12/03
1.8
62
12/10
-9.4
4
12/16
8.7
96
12/24
3.0
70
12/30
-1.9
37
01/07
5.2
82
01/14
1.5
60
01/21
3.2
71
01/28
1.5
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6

EPA

EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
1
15
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28

EPA

EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
6
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
3
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-17
L
L
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
23
W
W
O
12/03
17
W
W
O
12/10
-6
L
W
O
12/17
8
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/31
1
W
L
O
01/07
1
W
W
O
01/14
-1
L
W
U
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
5
W
W
O
12/10
-15
L
L
U
12/16
25
W
W
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/30
-1
L
W
U
01/07
10
W
W
O
01/14
1
W
L
U
01/21
8
W
W
O
01/28
-3
L
W
O