LARRams
10-7
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
12-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
14
3
3
23
Lions
14
7
3
0
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
334
Total Plays
55
55
Yards / Play
7.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.22
Passing Yards
357
255
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
22/27(81%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.42
Rushing Yards
68
79
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-22
Sack EPA
-3.20
-4.72
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
36
34
Penalty EPA
-3.49
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+21.3
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-24.7
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
18
9
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
5
19
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U