nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ packers week 9, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
3-5
3
TBD
Lambeau Field
51°F
8 mph
20
GBPackers
2-5
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
51°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
0
3
Packers
0
7
3
10
20

Spread

GB logo
-4

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
187
391
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
3.4
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.51
-0.13
Passing Yards
119
207
Comp/Att
13/28(46%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.10
Rushing Yards
68
184
Rush Attempts
26
38
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
10
21
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.59
-9.86
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-6.36
-6.39
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
36
57
Penalty EPA
-2.73
-6.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+74.8
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-94.0
Market Regression
+45.1
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rypien headshot

B. Rypien

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-94.0
Value
Ptile
10/01
-4.3
17
10/23
-5.2
17
12/18
-8.2
5
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.3
23
09/10
3.1
70
09/17
1.3
58
09/24
2.3
65
09/28
-5.9
15
10/09
-8.6
6
10/22
1.7
60
10/29
-3.6
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
13
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28

EPA

EPA / Play
11
25
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
18
28
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
14
24
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
17
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-21
L
L
U
01/08
-3
L
W
U
09/10
17
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
W
O
09/25
-3
L
P
U
10/01
6
W
W
O
10/08
-9
L
L
U
10/15
17
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-23
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
6
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
O
01/08
-4
L
L
U
09/10
18
W
W
O
09/17
-1
L
W
O
09/24
1
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
O
10/09
-4
L
L
U
10/22
-2
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
U