LARRams
3-5
3
TBD
Lambeau Field
51°F
8 mph
20
GBPackers
2-5
TBD
Lambeau Field
51°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
0
0
3
Packers
0
7
3
10
20
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
187
391
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
3.4
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.51
-0.13
Passing Yards
119
207
Comp/Att
13/28(46%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.10
Rushing Yards
68
184
Rush Attempts
26
38
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
21
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.59
-9.86
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-6.36
-6.39
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
36
57
Penalty EPA
-2.73
-6.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+74.1
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
+15.6
Net QB Adjustment
+74.7
Home QB Adjustment
-19.4
Away QB Adjustment
-94.1
Market Regression
+46.4
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Rypien
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-94.1
Value
Ptile
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
13
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
11
25
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
18
28
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
14
24
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U