BALRavens
10-5
38
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
10 mph
3
CINBengals
4-10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
7
21
0
38
Bengals
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-13.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
525
195
Total Plays
73
40
Yards / Play
7.2
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.54
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
6/21(29%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-1.16
Rushing Yards
404
147
Rush Attempts
54
19
Yards / Rush
7.5
7.7
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
10
Passing 1st downs
5
1
Rushing 1st downs
19
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
65%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
11
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.70
-10.76
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-5.14
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.9%
Spread Pick
Ravens-13.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-373
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-92.1
Home QB Adjustment
-78.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
+0.6
Final Difference
-329.4
Model Spread
+14.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-78.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
15
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
29
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U