BALRavens
7-5
47
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
18 mph
42
CLEBrowns
9-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
13
11
45
Browns
7
7
6
22
42
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
495
Total Plays
58
77
Yards / Play
6.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.22
Passing Yards
154
--
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
29/49(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.25
Rushing Yards
233
138
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.49
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
33
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
13
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
55%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.87
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-4.71
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
69
75
Penalty EPA
-10.17
-9.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-5.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
1
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
10
RZ Efficiency
4
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U