BALRavens
12-2
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
10 mph
15
CLEBrowns
6-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
14
7
10
31
Browns
0
6
3
6
15
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
481
241
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
6.8
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
184
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.01
Rushing Yards
243
57
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
16
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
64%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.56
-2.30
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.22
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
50
62
Penalty EPA
-12.99
-6.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-216
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,675
Home Field
+25.5
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+54.9
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+54.9
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
18
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
3
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U