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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ browns week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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BAL logo
BALRavens
12-2
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
10 mph
15
CLEBrowns
6-8
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
14
7
10
31
Browns
0
6
3
6
15

Spread

BAL logo
-10

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
481
241
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
6.8
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
184
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.01
Rushing Yards
243
57
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
31
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
16
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
64%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.56
-2.30
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.22
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
50
62
Penalty EPA
-12.99
-6.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-216
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,676
Home Field
+25.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+54.9
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+54.9
Value
Ptile
10/06
-6.9
12
10/13
9.2
95
10/20
3.4
75
11/03
9.8
96
11/10
9.3
95
11/17
9.6
96
11/25
10.7
98
12/01
6.2
87
12/08
2.8
71
12/12
11.0
99
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
10/27
-2.1
38
11/03
3.4
74
11/10
1.8
66
11/14
2.8
71
11/24
4.1
79
12/01
-6.2
15
12/08
-6.8
13
12/15
0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30

EPA

EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
1
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
12
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
3
RZ Efficiency
14
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
6
W
L
U
10/20
14
W
W
U
11/03
17
W
W
O
11/10
36
W
W
O
11/17
34
W
W
U
11/25
39
W
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
7
W
W
U
12/12
21
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
8
W
W
O
12/15
-14
L
L
O