BALRavens
3-1
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
47°F
06
KCChiefs
1-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
47°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
6
0
9
Chiefs
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
338
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
5.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.18
Passing Yards
165
--
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.04
Rushing Yards
133
214
Rush Attempts
24
51
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.02
-19.16
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-5.24
--
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
33
60
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-8.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-25.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.0
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
-115.2
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
6
16
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
24
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
16
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U