BALRavens
7-5
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
27°F
027
KCChiefs
10-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
27°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
7
0
24
Chiefs
7
10
0
7
3
27
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
442
Total Plays
68
83
Yards / Play
4.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.04
Passing Yards
127
348
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
35/53(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.22
Rushing Yards
194
94
Rush Attempts
40
27
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
30
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-2.07
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-29
Sack EPA
-5.98
-5.26
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
112
53
Penalty EPA
-9.03
-5.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+83.4
Home QB Adjustment
+44.1
Away QB Adjustment
-39.3
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-39.3
Value
Ptile
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+44.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
6
9
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
1
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U